The Fed Has Lost Control
The gold price shot up $50 in the last 30 days during a time of the year when the yellow metal typically lays down to begin its summer nap. At the same time, Bitcoin’s price has rose from its slumber. What’s up? Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees LLC , a macro/thematic research firm catering to institutions and individuals may have put his finger on it during his interview with Ed Harrison on Real Vision .
Gromen points out that something happened in the 4th quarter of last year and on March 20th of this year. Alarm bells have gone off at the Fed because for the first time in 70 years, government deficits matter. According to Gromen,
With Fed Funds went over interest on excess reserves, that was a sign that the United States government's deficits were getting so big and foreigners' interest in treasury bonds, because FX had yields, were so negative, though the interest from foreign private sector investors was so low, that we are crowding out our own banking system. And so, if the Fed does not inject a significant amount of dollar liquidity soon- be that via repo, be that via rate cuts, and I think you're going to be seeing QE probably in six to nine months at the latest.
From October through April , Uncle Sam’s outflow exceeded his inflow by $531 billion or 38% more than a year ago. Foreign central banks used to buy up US Treasuries like there is no tomorrow, but now, not so much. Late last year,
the hedging costs for foreign investors to buy US Treasuries went negative. In other words, for a Japanese or German private sector investor- and again, the US government's now critically reliant on foreign private sector investors to buy Treasuries, the yield FX hedged turn negative.
Last year the U.S. government issued $10 trillion worth of Treasuries, 70 percent of which have less than one-year maturities. This year it’ll be $11.5 trillion, again with 70 per cent maturing in less than 12 months.
The upshot of all this is
the Fed is losing control of [the] Fed Funds Rate at the short end because US deficits are growing as fast as they are. And because foreign official sector is not buying really at all on net. The foreign private sector is not buying enough, they are buying some unhedged but not nearly enough relative to the size of the deficits we're running.
The price of money is the Fed’s business and the gang at the Eccles Building has lost its grip according to Gromen, who believes, Powell has no choice but “to cede control over the quantity of money in order to control the price of money.”
A year ago, it was tighten, tighten, tighten, now three rate cuts are expected by the market by year-end. Gromen told Harrison that Trump’s tariffs matter some, but, it’s the deficits that really matter and are forcing the Fed’s hand.
And so, ultimately, what that suggests is that any rate cut you have because, again, the reason why all this is happening is US deficits are big and growing and structural. And they're crowding out the US private sector. And so, basically, the primary dealer of last resort, I think I saw someone say, or call it, the Fed is going to have to start bidding for these bonds again. So, I think it depends a lot on messaging on July- we were talking before, if they don't do what's expected, it's not going to be good for risk. But ultimately, they're going to have to unless they don't want to exist anymore.
We can be sure Chairman Powell will not want the Fed to vanish under his watch. He’ll be printing and bidding (for Treasuries). QE will return, along with a growing Fed balance sheet.
So what’s a person to do? Gromen sees more asset price inflation on the way and it will accelerate. In particular, he likes gold, both the barbaric version, and the electronic version, Bitcoin.